Intro

Q4 earnings season has wrapped up! Curious how The List performed compared to last year’s earnings and analyst expectations? Check out our earnings calendar for a full breakdown.

Last week we talked about ‘doing less badly’ than other strategies during periods of volatility. It might sound strange, but sometimes just losing less than others is what makes a good investor. When the market is booming, everyone looks smart—but the real test is how well you handle the tough times. Historically, dividend growth stocks have outperformed during periods of uncertainty.

When Chuck Carnevale said, “It’s a market of stocks, not a stock market,” he was emphasizing that the stock market is not a single, uniform entity that moves in the same direction for all stocks. Instead, it is made up of individual stocks, each with its own fundamentals, valuations, and performance patterns.

Below are the ten most undervalued dividend growth companies from our Canadian and U.S. watchlists, based on last Friday’s closing prices.

Here’s a recap on how we select our ‘Timely Ten’:

Step three in our process involves monitoring our quality dividend growers regularly, which can become quite challenging depending on the number of companies we track. Fortunately, we rely on ‘The List’ instead of the vast array of stocks in the index, which streamlines our task. Nevertheless, we continually seek methods to enhance our efficiency. Through dividend yield theory, we’ve discovered an approach that has proven remarkably effective in aiding us with our efforts over the years.

Dividend yield theory is a simple and intuitive approach to valuing dividend growth stocks. It suggests that the dividend yield of quality dividend growth stocks tends to revert to the mean over time, assuming that the underlying business model remains stable. In practical terms, if a stock pays a dividend yield above its ten-year average annual yield, its price will likely increase to return the yield to its historical average. Knowing that price and yield go in opposite directions, this theory helps us find stocks poised for a favourable price correction.

We have pre-screened our candidates using the criteria we initially laid out in building our watchlists. This helps us considerably narrow the universe of investable stocks.

1. Dividend growth streak: 10 years or more.
2. Market cap: Minimum one billion dollars.
3. Diversification: Limit of five companies per sector, preferably two per industry.
4. Cyclicality: Exclude REITs and pure-play energy companies due to high cyclicality.

Next, we rank our Canadian and American watchlists based on how far each stock’s price is below its fair value (Low Price), as determined by dividend yield theory. To find fair value, divide the current dividend (Dividend) by the stock’s historical high yield (High Yield).

Since price and yield move in opposite directions, a lower price results in a higher yield, and vice versa. The ten companies above the thick black line have a current price (Price) below fair value (Low Price). Put simply, these stocks have a current dividend yield higher than their historically high yield. According to dividend yield theory, these companies are sensibly priced and have the highest probability of a price increase in the shorter term. These are our ‘Timely Ten.’