Month: November 2024

Intro

A couple of months ago, in the ‘DGI Clipboard’ section of our weekly newsletter, I wrote about How to Own Inflation: Why Dividend Growth is the True Hedge. In that article, I demonstrated how inflation erodes purchasing power and explained why owning a portfolio of dividend growth stocks is one of the best ways to combat this challenge. Unlike bonds and T-bills, which don’t grow their income over time, a dividend growth portfolio not only increases its income but appreciates in value—this was the key point we emphasized.

This week, The Globe and Mail published a column exploring a similar theme. It compared the performance of dividend growth stocks to bonds and T-bills over the past 25 years, posing the question: Should retirees buy dividend stocks instead of bonds?

First a little column background:

To answer the question with historical data, the author picked the year 1999 as a starting point and created both a bond portfolio and a stock portfolio. This year was particularly favorable for government bonds, as yields were high and on a downward trajectory, benefiting bond prices. However, it was a challenging starting point for stocks due to the significant market disruptions that followed: the dot-com bubble burst in 2001-2002, the Great Recession of 2008-2009, and the sharp but short-lived market downturn during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The $50,000 stock portfolio was allocated across three companies: BCE-T (a telecom), TD-T (a Big Five bank), and ENB-T (a pipeline in the energy sector). While not necessarily the top performers in their sectors, these companies were chosen for their reputation as reliable dividend payers and provided some diversification.

The bond portfolio also consisted of $50,000, invested in long-term Canadian government bonds purchased in 1999. At the time, these bonds offered a yield of over 6%, which was locked in for the full 25-year term.

As a third option, the author also included 91-day Treasury bills (T-bills).

The author brilliantly proves his point with just two charts, leaving you to question the appeal of fixed income for long-term retirement investing.

Intro

This month, we’ve expanded our ‘Timely Ten’ to include a selection of U.S. companies we actively monitor. While we track far more than the 30 U.S. companies featured on this list, we’ve streamlined it for consistency with our Canadian counterpart. Broadening your investable universe offers no shortage of compelling opportunities to consider.

Here’s a recap on how we select our ‘Timely Ten’:

Step three in our process involves monitoring our quality dividend growers regularly, which can become quite challenging depending on the number of companies we track. Fortunately, we rely on ‘The List’ instead of the vast array of stocks in the index, which streamlines our task. Nevertheless, we continually seek methods to enhance our efficiency. Through dividend yield theory, we’ve discovered an approach that has proven remarkably effective in aiding us with our efforts over the years.

Dividend yield theory is a simple and intuitive approach to valuing dividend growth stocks. It suggests that the dividend yield of quality dividend growth stocks tends to revert to the mean over time, assuming that the underlying business model remains stable. In practical terms, if a stock pays a dividend yield above its ten-year average annual yield, its price will likely increase to return the yield to its historical average. Knowing that price and yield go in opposite directions, this theory helps us find stocks poised for a positive price correction.

We have pre-screened our candidates using the criteria we initially laid out in building ‘The List’. This helps us considerably narrow the universe of investable stocks.

1. Dividend growth streak: 10 years or more.
2. Market cap: Minimum one billion dollars.
3. Diversification: Limit of five companies per sector, preferably two per industry.
4. Cyclicality: Exclude REITs and pure-play energy companies due to high cyclicality.

Next, we rank ‘The List’ by how significantly each stock is priced below its fair value (Low Price), as calculated using dividend yield theory. To determine fair value, divide the current dividend by what you consider to be the stock’s historically high yield.

All companies above the thick black line have a current price below fair value (sensibly priced). The stocks above the thick black line make up our ‘Timely Ten’.

Intro

Major indices, including the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, have surged to new highs, reflecting investor optimism around the incoming Trump administration’s economic policies. Here in Canada, our markets experienced a similar boost following Donald Trump’s election victory, but our markets never seem to quite keep up.

This week, I’m excited to welcome our new subscribers from south of the border! Our reach is growing, and while much of our analysis focuses on Canadian dividend growth companies, the principles of dividend growth investing are just as relevant in the U.S. as they are in Canada. The key difference? The U.S. market offers roughly ten times the number of quality dividend growth companies to invest in.

In this edition of the MP Market Review, readers will get a sneak peek at our soon-to-be-public MP Wealth-Builder Model Portfolio (USA). I launched this portfolio for family and friends in May 2023, following a business plan similar to the one in our ‘Premium Content’ section. The main difference lies in the position sizing strategy. When I post the portfolio performance to the blog, I will include the U.S. business plan as well.

To provide accountability, transparency, and trust in our process, we ‘timestamp’ all our trades. Each quarter, we show each purchase transaction to date to see how we are doing and the effects a growing dividend has on price. We don’t hide our history. When we’re wrong, it’s right there for all to see – every win, loss, and tie.

Portfolio To Date (USA)

Intro

I’m reluctant to sell when I am building a position in any of our quality dividend growth stocks. My first objective when buying a stock is to hold it indefinitely and enjoy the steady, growing dividend income it provides. However, sometimes, changes occur that no longer align with the goals of my portfolio before I can fill out my position size. These changes may include a dividend cut or a dividend freeze (when a company fails to raise its dividend at the expected time).

Yesterday, Bell Canada (BCE-T), one of our quality dividend growers, announced a dividend freeze.

To determine if a stock that’s frozen its dividend still belongs in my portfolio, I follow my process: